Karnataka polls: What's ahead?

M. Gautham Machaiah

A drunk once staggered out of a bar, held on to the nearest lamp post and remarked, “United we stand, divided I fall.” This pretty much explains the state of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its former leader B.S. Yeddyurappa, as both cannot survive without the support of the other when Karnataka goes to polls in May.

Yeddyurappa was virtually driven out of the party with which he was associated for over four decades, by forces inimical towards him within the BJP, after he had to step down as Chief Minister on corruption charges. With this, the party lost its only trump card in the State with no other leader commanding the respect that Yeddyurappa does among the voters.

Yeddyurappa was mainly responsible for the BJP forming its first government in the South, but the party fritted away this opportunity by providing one of the most corrupt and inefficient governments Karnataka has ever seen. What a contrast to the role model BJP governments in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh!

It is not that the previous Congress regimes provided a clean administration—being past masters in corruption, the party succeeded in sweeping its trail clean. But the BJP was so consumed by greed that its ministers became reckless. And unlike in the Congress where the party stands by its leaders when in trouble, in the BJP, Yeddyurappa’s grave was dug by some of his colleagues who aspired to become the Chief Minister.

Though Yeddyurappa presided over a shamelessly corrupt government and even went to jail for his alleged misdeeds, he continues to hold sway over the masses, not just the dominant Lingayat community to which he belongs. Yeddyurappa has the credit of winning virtually every election for his party after he became the Chief Minister. Now, after his departure, the party has had a bitter taste of what is to come following its humiliating performance in the recently held local body elections.

But minus the BJP, the future is no bed of roses for Yeddyurappa too as he is likely to meet the fate of one of his predecessors S. Bangarappa, who quit the Congress to form the Karnataka Congress Party (KCP) in 1994. The KCP barely managed to win ten seats in the ensuing Assembly elections, though it dented the Congress vote share in several constituencies. Yeddyurappa and his newly formed outfit, Karnataka Janata Party will play the role of spoilsport for the BJP, though his own gains are unlikely to be significant.

Thus, it is in the interest of both the BJP and Yeddyurappa to forget the past and fight the elections together. There is a saying in Kannada which literally translated means, when two people quarrel, a third person benefits. This is precisely the situation in Karnataka where the Congress is all set to take advantage of the internecine rivalries in the BJP and romp home to power by default, not by its own merit.

The Congress too is a divided house, but the party has demonstrated in the past that its leaders are capable of sinking their differences on the eve of the elections and putting up a united front. Besides, while the Congress vote bank is intact, the chunk of traditional BJP votes are now divided between Yeddyurappa and the Reddy brothers of Bellary who have also formed their own party.  

From the current ground realities it appears that the Congress will emerge the single largest party, though it might not cross the magical figure of 125 in the 224-member House. However, with a favourable Governor in Raj Bhavan and opportunistic parties like Janata Dal (Secular) ever willing to oblige, cobbling up a majority may not be difficult.

But for the people of Karnataka all this hardly makes a difference. For them, it is a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea.